Watching the devolution of the Republican party under Trump’s leadership has convinced me that Republicans, not Democrats, will turn America into a socialist nation. Before the trolls call me deranged, deluded, or worse, a closet Democrat, I propose a few premises that I think most Americans can agree on before presenting my argument.
The first is that politicians of both parties lie. They especially lie to get into power or hold onto it. And by any objective standard, (though I admit objectivity is in short supply these days) Republicans are better liars than Democrats. One could argue that point, but I think I’m on solid rhetorical ground here. See my essay on the Athenian roots of our democracy for an elaboration:
https://usrepresented.com/staging/2987/2019/08/21/political-divide/
Certainly, Trump is a better liar, or at least more prolific liar, than most Democrats although I would allow Bill Clinton as a possible exception. For those who might deny Trump and or the Republicans as liars, I suggest rolling the tape or strolling through Lexus-Nexus. Many of Trump’s biggest supporters, such as Senator Lindsay Graham, are on record as calling Trump a liar when he was campaigning and then denying they did after he won. The point is simply that politicians lie, and those who are better at it get more power and hold on to it longer. The fact that Republicans, in a supposed democracy, hold a much higher percentage political seats compared to the votes they receive is proof of their brilliant marketing strategies. And all marketing is based on deception.
A second premise is that most people do not know what socialism really is. Exhibit A is the placard proudly waved by a Tea Party Republican early in Obama’s administration that read, “Keep your government hands off of my Medicare.” Medicare, Social Security, farm subsidies, and corporate tax breaks, etc. are all manifestations of socialist thinking. Most people think of Nazi Germany when the subject of socialism is brought up. While it’s true that Hitler’s Germany was a socialist country besides being a brutal dictatorship, modern Germany is also a socialist country albeit a democratic one. My premise is that most people confuse different economic systems with different types of government. It is entirely possible for a capitalist system to also be a governmental dictatorship. For my argument, I propose the simplest definition of socialism: any economic system in which all government-derived economic decisions are made with the well-being of the greatest number of citizens in mind.
A third premise for my argument is that any economic system that doesn’t allow the majority of its people access to food, clothing, and shelter will be replaced by one that does. Historically, when more than 25% of a population lacks basic subsistence, governments fall. The Republicans got trounced during the Great Depression when unemployment hit the 25% threshold. They only got back into power by accepting Roosevelt’s socialist programs and by running a war hero for president. Since then, the electorate has taught them not to tamper with Social Security, Medicare, or any other popular social program. Even hints of such meddling, as in Bush’s suggestion to privatize Social Security, led to election defeats. Therefore, Republicans quite practically abandoned their principles in exchange for power.
My final premise is that automation of jobs will accelerate rather than slow down or stabilize. Human workers are simply too unreliable and expensive for capitalists. If we accept Adam’s Smith’s assertion that all economics starts with farming, then we can see how food production is the future of most jobs in America and the world. I know a farmer in Ft. Morgan, Colorado who grows feed corn for the nearby slaughterhouse. He gets into his combine, settles back, and watches TV while GPS guides his equipment as it plants, cultivates, and harvests his crop. How long before he doesn’t even have to be in the cab? Anheuser-Busch has already demonstrated the ability to deliver beer without humans running the trucks. Amazon uses robots to run its warehouses and is developing delivery drones. Fast food restaurants are replacing cashiers with kiosks. With the development of 3D food printers, it won’t be long before a human will not touch any food until it is served to them. From farm to table, robots will run the entire process.
What is true of food production will apply to every basic human need and most current jobs as well. Automation will make more people unemployed or underemployed, and Marx will be proven right about the inevitability of socialism. Capitalists will put more and more workers out of their jobs through expanding automation in order to increase profits as they strive to be the first trillionaires. Outsourcing has moved many jobs overseas. AI and robots will ensure they never come back.
It is not just people’s paychecks that are in danger. Meaningful work is also necessary for human happiness. Unemployment and idleness will increase until public desperation reaches critical mass. At that juncture, any party that wants to be in power will do whatever it takes to stay in power. Principles be damned. I seriously doubt the Republicans will allow the Democrats to pull another “New Deal” on them. Besides, Trump’s court-packing almost guarantees that Democrats will never be able to get their socialist ideas implemented. Just like in Roosevelt’s time, the courts will frustrate all Democratic programs.
But Republicans can and will stop bashing socialism and embrace its ideas by rebranding them in order to run the country. They will just market socialism as something else. Proof that the Republicans will abandon any principles to stay in power is their stance on the deficit. Deficit spending was horrible when LBJ, Carter, and Obama had them. But trillion-dollar deficits were perfectly acceptable under Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2, and now Trump. We’re at twenty trillion dollars and growing at a rate of a trillion per year with nary a peep out of the Republicans. They have even embraced the socialist farm subsidies that Trump passed to help farmers hurt by the trade war with China. Without the support of rural farmers in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the Republicans will be in trouble politically. The 2020 election will tell us more about whether the subsidies are enough, but the point is that conservatives will accept socialism if it meets their political needs.
I think Trump is right about a coming civil war, but not for the reasons he thinks. Between the growing deficit and the coming job losses, economic chaos lies in our future. It will lead to radical and violent confrontations which we are already starting to see. And when the public gets desperate enough, the Republicans, with their surplus of guns and their marketing brilliance will take control of the country. Socialism, by some other name, will be their only path to maintain the power they will be given.
